Pharmaceutical industry COVID-19 vaccine market opportunity could move more than 8.4 billion euros a year: The future COVID-19 vaccine market could be worth more than 10,000 million dollars a year (about 8,400 euros), according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse and as and collects Financial Times.

The analysts ' estimate is based on the possibility that people will not be immunized forever with a single dose of the vaccine, but will need booster doses every year, such as the flu vaccine.

"My basic assumption right now is that annual vaccinations will be needed," says Matthew Harrison, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. "[The virus] is not going to go away."

Despite growing skepticism toward a coronavirus vaccine, analysts have taken into account a scenario in which the majority of the population is reluctant to get vaccinated.

Even if only people who get vaccinated against the flu were also those who get vaccinated against COVID-19, the market would be worth 10.000 million dollars in developed countries, says Harrison.

The price of the vaccine, an ongoing debate

For their estimates of how much the COVID-19 vaccine market will be worth, analysts have also relied on the average cost that each dose seems to have as well, which is still a controversial ongoing debate.

Since Gilead, the pharmacist responsible for the first drug authorized for commercialization against COVID-19, set the price at more than 2,000 euros per treatment becoming the target of many criticisms, the company has increased pressure on companies when it comes to defining their prices.

Pharmaceutical industry COVID-19 vaccine market opportunity

The modern American biotech could be considering selling the dose for between 25 and 30 dollars (between 21 and 25 euros), as sources familiar with the matter have assured the Financial Times. Considering that two doses would be needed, that puts the final price of the modern vaccine between 50 and 60 dollars (between 42.6 and 51 euros).

Moderna is one of the companies that, together with Pfizer and Merck, have declared that they will not give up profits from the sale of vaccines against coronavirus.

For their part, manufacturers such as AstraZeneca, which works with the University of Oxford, and Johnson & Johnson have assured that they will not box with the vaccine and will sell it at cost price while the crisis lasts.

The European Commission has reserved several million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine and, although the economic details of the EC agreement have not transcended, according to statements by the Italian Health Minister collected by Reuters, the cost of each dose is around 2.5 euros.

Paul Stoffels, scientific director of Johnson & Johnson, told Belgium's De Tijd that he expected a coronavirus vaccine from his company to cost as little as 10 or 11 dollars (around 10 euros).

The German CureVac assured that it would not sell at a cost price, but that it would seek an "ethical margin" of profits.

Many factors contribute to the final price of a vaccine. Mainly it is the cost of manufacturing, since Pharmaceuticals seek to recover the enormous investment made, as well as obtain profits. In the case of the pandemic, many of the companies have received millions of dollars in aid from governments and non-profit organizations to speed up their research.

Other factors that may affect are the need for the vaccine, the effectiveness of the candidate or competing products. For example, FT sources assure that Moderna would have initially sought a higher figure, but negotiations failed because other companies have accepted significantly lower prices.

Executives of major pharmaceutical companies and the British government's top scientific adviser have said they believe COVID-19 will become an endemic disease, says the Financial Times.

David Ricks, the CEO of Eli Lilly, which is developing an antibody treatment, assured that he expected long-term demand for the drug, predicting that not everyone would get vaccinated and that the disease would continue to spread.

The main question is how long immunity lasts and the size of the market will depend on whether immunity will need a boost.

For now, experts seem to be pointing more towards the idea that we will have a vaccine that is more effective in protecting against disease than against infection.

Elizabeth Single, a scientific, owner and co-director with Luis Enjuanes laboratory of coronaviruses from the National Center of Biotechnology (CNB) of the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), explained in a previous interview with Business Insider Spain that it is likely that the first vaccines arriving are not one hundred percent effective and does not know their long-term protection.

"We will not know how long the immunity lasts, because it will not have given time to follow the volunteers for a long time," she acknowledged Sola, " but it will be the only question. Otherwise, they will be safe and induce immunity"

In the event that the data discovered on immunity does not offer hopeful results, Adolfo García-Sastre, director of the Institute of Global Health and Emerging Pathogens linked to the Mount Sinai Hospital in New York, assures that a vaccine could still be useful, as they could make the disease milder and relieve pressure on the health system.

For the company that manages to market a safe and effective vaccine, the possibility that that vaccine would have to be administered each year completely maximizes its profit opportunities.

Pharmaceutical industry COVID-19 vaccine market opportunity

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